A win for Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election could be a “net negative” for the electric vehicle (EV) industry but might prove beneficial for Tesla, according to Wedbush analysts led by Daniel Ives. The team suggested that while Trump would likely roll back EV tax incentives, Tesla (NASDAQ) may be positioned to thrive despite these changes.
Trump’s potential administration is expected to eliminate current EV rebates and incentives for non-combustion vehicles, a shift that could hurt many automakers but might give Tesla a competitive edge. “Tesla’s scale and unmatched reach in the EV market could provide it with a ‘clear advantage’ as competitors adjust to a subsidy-free environment,” the analysts explained. In addition, Trump’s proposed tariffs on China could deter low-cost Chinese EV makers, like BYD and Nio, from entering the U.S. market, reducing competitive pressure for Tesla.
A Trump presidency could also fast-track regulatory approval for Tesla’s autonomous driving projects. Recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has publicly supported Trump, indicated that the company’s new Cybercab robotaxi could enter production by 2027. The Wedbush analysts suggest that Trump’s policies could help accelerate Tesla’s targets in this sector.
However, the political alignment between Musk and Trump could have downsides for Tesla, potentially alienating some customers. Wedbush noted that “Musk’s support of Trump might sway certain consumers away from Tesla in favor of other EV brands.”
The race remains tight, with Trump and Democratic rival Kamala Harris nearly tied in polls. Both candidates campaigned aggressively over the weekend in battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. Harris saw a boost in Iowa, leading by three points in a state traditionally leaning conservative.
As the election looms, analysts, investors, and the EV industry are watching closely to see how a Trump victory could impact future U.S. policies on electrification and autonomous vehicle technology.
